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中国养猪业:展望

2012年 4月 16日 星期一

中国多半将继续维持大量的猪肉进口,Fred Gale、Daniel Marti和Dinghuan Hu最近在USDA(美国农业部)经济研究局的题为《中国多变的养猪业》的报告中预报。

USDA Economic Research Service

由于饲料成本上涨,并且猪场以及屠宰设施扩建所需的土地资源稀缺、成本高昂,预计中国猪肉自给自足的传统将很难维持。在中国发展大规模养猪生产造成的环境与食品安全影响将变得越来越明显。猪肉在中国国内地区间的运输的可靠途径和冷藏运输条件方面存在限制因素。

由于美国立法与执法更为严格,畜舍与粪便处理方面的投入更大,专业技术应用更为广泛,并且生产者与屠宰公司之间协调情况更好,使得美国猪肉生产造成的环境影响与食品安全问题比中国更少,并且疾病暴发的情况也比中国少。中国方面的需求提高了杂碎肉和内脏的价格,这些产品在美国市场并不被广泛地用作食品。

中国的餐饮链、宾馆以及其它买家对优质稳定的猪肉的需求高,可称为进口猪肉的重要潜在消费者(Fabiosa等人,2005).随着消费者口味的日趋多样化以及市场的逐渐分化,中国市场将会出现进口猪肉与国产猪肉以及传统品种猪肉共存的局面。 21

中国国内对猪肉进口的强大阻力可能会影响贸易,影响出口商。中国加入世贸组织之后降低了猪肉的关税,但猪肉进口方面仍然存在类似于Hayes和Clemens (1997)描述过的那种阻力。从中国的“猪价预警”计划所列出的响应政策当中可以看出这方面的证据,这些政策包括限制猪肉进口,以便减少市场供应,病鼓励猪肉出口。2007年中国猪价高涨的时候,官方发表声明保证中国不会进口大量猪肉(新华社,2007)。 22

2010年6月(中国解除因H1N1而对美国猪肉施加的禁令之后),有一篇题为《警惕美国猪肉》的文章警告,如果不对国内养猪业进行保护,那么进口猪肉可能蚕食中国的养猪业(Li,2009)。一位分析人士引用该文内容并警告读者要警惕‘美国人设下的陷阱’”,说美国猪肉进口如果不受限制,那么养猪业‘将有可能重蹈大豆种植业的覆辙,面临灾难性的后果’。 23

类似地,Liu(2010)报导称,中国官方对外国在养猪业方面的投资感到担心,因为他们怕在养猪业当中丧失“领导力”。

脚标

21中国的许多超市和特别零售店都提供本地品种的猪肉。这类产品的出现是因为,这些猪肉的售价更高,口味更好,并且据说更为健康。

22官方媒体的文章包括保证进口猪肉主要用于宾馆,并且进口将不会对市场造成影响,并且尽管中国在猪肉方面自由贸易,但同时也有一套严格的检验检疫体系。

23这指的是中国对大豆进口的强烈抵制。

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